New Normals Based on ERA5 Data

Dec. 1, 2020Catherine Meissner, Andreas Malmgård

We are happy to announce that we have created a new set of normals for wind, solar and consumption.

Normals based on ERA5 data

We have published a new set of normals for all European countries. The new normals are calculated using the ERA5 data from ECMWF with a new reference period between 1986-2015. Before, the normals were based on ERA-Interim data between 1980-2010.

ERA5 is a global atmospheric reanalysis from 1979, continuously updated in near real time. The data covers the earth on a 30 km grid. ERA5 combines vast amounts of historical observations into global estimates using advanced modelling and data assimilation systems to provide variables like 100 m wind, 2 m temperature and radiation, which are the inputs to our weather-to-fundamental models.

ERA5 replaces the old ERA-Interim reanalysis which stopped being produced on 31 August 2019. ERA-Interim had a horizontal grid resolution of only 80 km and was therefore less accurate, e.g. when it comes to the modelling of local wind systems which are important for the correct wind power production forecast.

Assumptions calculated up to 2050

The normal assumptions have been calculated up to the year 2050 this time. Before, they only lasted until 2040. For that we have revised the growth assumptions for consumption, wind and solar capacity for the period 2020-2040 and added new ones from 2040 to 2050.

Where to find the new data in the API

The curves called “pro {area} wnd weather30 mwh/h cet h n” contain the forecast for 2020-2050 based on the single representative year. Curve tag number one contains the forecast based on the ERA5 weather from 1986, tag number two contains the forecast based on the ERA5 weather from 1987 and so on.

The curves called “pro {area} wnd mwh/h cet 15min n” contain the smoothed average over the 30 tags from the curve above.

In the curves “pro {area} wnd weather-years-extended mwh/h cet h n” you find the same data as in the first curve but not only for the years from 1986-2015, but from 1980 to 2020 such that there is a total of 40 different weather years available.

The old curves called “pro {area} wnd weather-years mwh/h cet h n” will still exist until end of march 2021 and contain the prediction with the Era-interim data, but they will not be updated anymore with new growth assumptions.

Normals screenshot wapi

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